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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-08 16:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 081445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.5N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-08 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 08:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 09:22:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-08 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Kevin has changed little overnight. Microwave data and infrared satellite imagery reveal that its convective bands are still somewhat fragmented with only modest curvature. Recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer passes were available to better assess the cyclone's current intensity. The cyclone continues moving westward, or 270 degrees, at around 9 kt. This motion is expected for another 12 to 24 h, before a mid- to upper-level trough weakens the steering ridge and causes Kevin to move west-northwestward through midweek. Kevin is forecast to pass near or just south of Clarion Island on Tuesday. The track guidance is in good agreement for much of the forecast period, and the latest official NHC forecast lies near the previous one and generally follows the multi-model consensus aids. Kevin appears primed for some strengthening, as the cyclone will remain in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat content for the next couple of days. However, persistent northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 kt will likely curtail rapid intensification in an otherwise favorable environment. Despite the shear, the guidance supports strengthening in the near-term, and the official NHC forecast shows Kevin becoming a hurricane on Monday. The cyclone's intensity is forecast to level off by Tuesday, with weakening thereafter as Kevin moves over cooler waters and continues to battle moderate shear. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but remains near or slightly above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.8N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 28 27(55) 2(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 8(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 30(38) 41(79) 1(80) X(80) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 37(48) 3(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 5(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-08 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 8 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -108.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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