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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-08 22:30:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-08 16:49:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 14:49:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 14:49:13 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-08 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 8 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -109.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-08 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 081445 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.0W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected early Monday, and that general motion should continue into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-08 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 081445 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 31 9(40) 3(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 110W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 45(56) 25(81) 1(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 29(45) X(45) X(45) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 32(48) 1(49) X(49) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 33(45) 2(47) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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