je.st
news
Tag: kevin
Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 108.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today, and spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
Tags: number
public
kevin
storm
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Tags: number
kevin
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-08 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 02:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 02:33:43 GMT
Tags: graphics
kevin
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-08 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Kevin appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a central dense overcast feature that is surrounded by fragmented curved bands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The cyclone is moving westward, or 270 degrees, at 10 kt. Kevin is expected to continue westward for about another day or so while it remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge to its north. After that time, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast as a mid- to upper-level trough erodes the western portion of the ridge, allowing Kevin to gain more latitude. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is currently over warm 29 C waters and embedded in a very moist air mass. These conditions support strengthening, but there could be a moderate amount of northeasterly shear that will likely prevent rapid intensification. Nonetheless, steady strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane during that time period. Beyond that time, however, progressively cooler waters and drier air should cause Kevin to level off in strength and then begin to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.8N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
kevin
storm
Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-08 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 7 59(66) 11(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 110W 50 X 20(20) 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 110W 64 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 14(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 59(74) 5(79) X(79) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 4(40) X(40) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 38(43) 11(54) 1(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 13(39) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Sites : [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] next »