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Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-28 04:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 02:46:30 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-28 04:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 02:44:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 02:44:44 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-05-28 04:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280244 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center. Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The system is still not well organized with some elongation of the center noted. Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially closed. Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall, which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions. The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now estimated to be 315/08 kt. Alberto is moving on the northeastern side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation. Early this week, a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough will approach Alberto from the northwest. This pattern should induce a northward turn over the next few days. Due to the recent more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the previous one. Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 29.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 33.3N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 35.8N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 41.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 46.5N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-05-28 04:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 280242 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 21 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ST MARKS FL 34 19 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) APALACHICOLA 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 29 8(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 83 12(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 5 19(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 4 8(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 3( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 4 27(31) 12(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 35 38(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) WHITING FLD FL 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 36 27(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 42 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MOBILE AL 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 12
2018-05-28 04:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280242 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 85.8W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.8 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north- northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and move into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 to 25 inches. The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area overnight and continue through Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible on Monday across much of Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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