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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-16 10:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 08:33:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 09:22:06 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-16 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 645 WTNT45 KNHC 160832 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Ernesto has generally changed little during the past several hours. The subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in curved bands around the center. The circulation of the system is becoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is wrapping into the western portion of the system. The initial wind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as it will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind shear environment for only another 12 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move into an environment of higher shear. These conditions should cause Ernesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when the SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C. The post-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part to its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom this weekend. The storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving north-northeastward at 11 kt. A turn to the northeast with a significant increase in forward speed is expected later today and Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing the system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 40.8N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 42.4N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 45.0N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z 50.6N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-16 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 40.8, -44.1 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-16 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 123 WTNT35 KNHC 160832 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.8N 44.1W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-16 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 130 FONT15 KNHC 160832 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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