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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-15 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 320 WTNT45 KNHC 152035 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in convection near and to the east of the center of Ernesto this afternoon, but there has been little change in the overall organization of the subtropical storm. The satellite intensity estimate from TAFB remains an ST2.5, so the initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory. Ernesto is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs and in a low wind shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, and some modest strengthening is anticipated. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs below 20C and into an area of increasing vertical wind shear. As a result, Ernesto is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom in 3 to 4 days. Ernesto is moving northward or 005/8 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward tonight ahead of a mid-level trough that is located off the coast of the eastern United States. Ernesto is forecast to become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by late Thursday and it is expected to accelerate northeastward at that time. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is again near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 40.4N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 42.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 48.0N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 53.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-15 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 39.0, -45.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 3
2018-08-15 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 951 WTNT35 KNHC 152035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 45.7W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-08-15 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 987 FONT15 KNHC 152035 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-08-15 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 593 WTNT25 KNHC 152034 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 45.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 45.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.4N 44.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 48.0N 31.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.0N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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