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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-12 05:01:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 03:01:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 03:34:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-12 04:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 374 WTNT44 KNHC 120259 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 A slew of recent microwave passes have revealed that Isaac's center is outrunning the deep convection by about a degree due to strengthening westerly shear. With the degradation in structure, Dvorak estimates have fallen to T3.0/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is being set at 55 kt to match the CI number (3.5), but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual intensity is closer to the final-T number. Isaac is moving quickly westward, or 270/14 kt. Ridging to the north should keep the cyclone on a similar speed and path for much of the forecast period. The only main difference among the track models is Isaac's future speed, and the NHC official forecast continues to favor the faster models--the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA models. Since the forecast thinking is unchanged, the updated NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one. Isaac's center is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles near Martinique and Dominica on Thursday. Vertical shear is expected to increase and turn more northwesterly during the next 36 hours as Isaac moves closer to the base of an upper-level trough which extends northeast of the Leeward Islands. Therefore, deep convection is expected to remain decoupled from the low-level center, and Isaac's structure could degrade further over the next day or two. The cyclone's maximum winds are also expected to decrease, and the NHC official forecast is close to the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus aids. Even though the statistical-dynamical models and the HWRF restrengthen Isaac by days 4 and 5 when the shear decreases, there may not be much left of the cyclone for any strengthening to occur. Both the GFS and ECMWF global models show Isaac weakening to a remnant low or opening up into a trough by days 4 or 5, which is the scenario favored by the NHC official forecast. As such, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5. Key Message: 1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those islands should follow any advice given by their local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 52.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 14.7N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 14.9N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.1N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 15.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 15.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-09-12 04:59:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 949 FONT14 KNHC 120259 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 15(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 24(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MARTINIQUE 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 13(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-12 04:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Isaac was located near 14.5, -52.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-12 04:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 504 WTNT34 KNHC 120258 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 52.3W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe. The Hurricane Watch for Martinique and Guadeloupe has been discontinued. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 52.3 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by Friday or Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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