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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-09-13 16:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 249 FONT14 KNHC 131439 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 24
2018-09-13 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 808 WTNT24 KNHC 131438 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * BARBUDA * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 61.8W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 15SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 61.8W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 64.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.9N 67.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.9N 69.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 72.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 61.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-13 13:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 11:53:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:34:26 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-13 13:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOON IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Isaac was located near 15.2, -60.9 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 23A
2018-09-13 13:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 883 WTNT34 KNHC 131152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 800 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOON IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 60.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF DOMINICA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Barbuda * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 60.9 West. Isaac is moving faster toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue today with a decrease in forward speed over the Caribbean Sea. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea later today, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next several hours as Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening is forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, especially over elevated terrain. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with isolated amounts to 3 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning within the next few hours through the afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area, also beginning later this morning. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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