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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 23

2018-09-13 10:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 587 WTNT24 KNHC 130855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBUDA SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * BARBUDA * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 59.7W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 59.7W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 61.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 67.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 78.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 59.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics

2018-09-13 07:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 05:44:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 03:34:32 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)

2018-09-13 07:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Isaac was located near 15.3, -58.8 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 22A

2018-09-13 07:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 766 WTNT34 KNHC 130543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 200 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 58.8W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF DOMINICA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 58.8 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea later today, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. A continued gradual decrease in the winds is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the north of the center. Recent data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area later this morning through the afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area, beginning later this morning. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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