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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 20A
2018-09-12 20:23:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 217 WTNT34 KNHC 121823 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 20A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 200 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 Corrected for distances from Martinique and Guadeloupe ...ISAAC MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 55.7W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and the government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.7 West. Isaac is moving faster toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-12 19:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 17:56:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 15:34:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-12 17:01:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 15:01:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 15:01:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-12 16:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 829 WTNT44 KNHC 121459 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 GOES-16 1-minute satellite imagery along with NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that the center of Isaac has become fully exposed on the northwestern side of a shrinking area of deep convection. There is still a lot of wind there, however, with the NOAA plane observing SFMR and adjusted flight-level winds to support 50 kt as an initial intensity. An upper-level trough is dropping southward over the central Atlantic, which has increased the shear this morning over Isaac. This high shear is forecast to remain for the next day or two, and it is possible that Isaac will degrade into a tropical wave during that time, although the area of tropical-storm-force winds will likely not go away for a while. In a couple of days, while the wind shear could decrease over the east-central Caribbean Sea, there might not be much of a system left to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. As a compromise, the official forecast shows a slow weakening, in the direction of the model consensus, and continues to show dissipation after 96 hours in line with the GFS/ECMWF guidance. I wouldn't pay much attention to the long range forecast for now, given the uncertainties in Isaac surviving during the next day or two. The low-level center of Isaac has recently accelerated, moving westward at 15 kt, as it decoupled from the slower mid-level flow. Assuming the system stays vertically coherent, a large mid-tropospheric high is forecast to persist for the next several days. This should keep the system moving westward at a somewhat slower pace throughout the forecast period. There isn't much spread in the guidance, and the official forecast is close to the previous one after accounting for the initial position. The long-range track forecast highly depends on the intensity forecast, so it should be considered low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those islands should follow any advice given by their local officials. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac. The storm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.0N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 15.1N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 15.3N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.3N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.4N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-09-12 16:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 138 FONT14 KNHC 121456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANTIGUA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GUADELOUPE 34 X 12(12) 35(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 20(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) AVES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X 10(10) 51(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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