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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-13 11:01:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:01:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:34:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-09-13 10:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 142 WTNT44 KNHC 130859 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft that departed the storm shortly before 0600 UTC indicated that the tropical storm has weakened a little more. Maximum flight-level winds were around 51 kt, while maximum SFMR winds were only 41 kt. Both of these support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Wind measurements from the plane also suggested that Isaac is close to opening up into a tropical wave and its circulation is likely barely closed at the surface. Another P-3 mission is scheduled for this morning. Isaac is nearly completely devoid of deep convection at the moment, and is not trackable in radar data from Guadeloupe and Martinique. Given the lack of deep convection to sustain the cyclone, continued gradual weakening is expected. However, given the extent of 40 mph winds observed by the NOAA plane, Isaac is still likely to bring gusty conditions to many of the Leeward Islands through this afternoon. The dynamical guidance is now in fairly good agreement on the intensity of Isaac for the next few days, and nearly all of the models depict Isaac opening into a trough between 48 and 96 h. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains Isaac through day 4 in an attempt to maintain some continuity, but it is very possible that Isaac will open into a trough sooner than indicated. Some of the dynamical models suggest that regeneration could occur in the western Caribbean, however the predictability of such an event is too low to explicitly show in the forecast at this point. Isaac is still moving quickly westward, with an initial motion of 275/15 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high, and the track guidance is tightly clustered through the forecast period. Very little change was made to the track forecast, which continues to closely follow the HCCA model. As long as Isaac remains a shallow cyclone, it should continue to be steered westward by the low-level tradewind flow, even if, or when, it opens up into a trough. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles this morning and afternoon, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. 2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, and St. Martin. Tropical storm conditions are possible on these islands today and interests on those islands should follow any advice given by their local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 15.4N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 15.5N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 15.5N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 15.6N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 16.9N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-09-13 10:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 572 FONT14 KNHC 130856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 9 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 20 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GUADELOUPE 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) AVES 34 5 44(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) DOMINICA 34 34 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MARTINIQUE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-13 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Isaac was located near 15.4, -59.7 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 23
2018-09-13 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 441 WTNT34 KNHC 130856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 59.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF DOMINICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Barbuda * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 59.7 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea later today, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Earlier data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next several hours as Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening is forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, especially over elevated terrain. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with isolated amounts to 3 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning within the next few hours through the afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area, also beginning later this morning. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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