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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 16:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Nine was located near 25.0, -74.5 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-13 16:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 74.5W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 74.5 West. The system is barely moving, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north-northwest later today. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or near the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Saturday. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-13 16:53:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 131453 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 74.5W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 74.5W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.8N 76.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.6N 78.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 80.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 74.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 13:30:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Nine was located near 25.1, -75.3 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3A
2019-09-13 13:30:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131130 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 75.3W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the disturbance was estimated near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Saturday. An Air Force plane is enroute to investigate the disturbance. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form later today or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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