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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-13 13:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 11:30:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 09:24:37 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-13 11:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 09:00:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 09:00:03 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-13 10:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130858 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the tropical disturbance is currently comprised of a trough elongated from west-southwest to east-northeast, with a vorticity center near a loosely curved convective band at the eastern end of the trough. While the system has become a little better organized since the last advisory, it does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on satellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data. The disturbance is now moving a little faster, with the initial motion of 315/5. The system is to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is to the east of a mid- to upper-level low over the central Gulf of Mexico. The large-scale models forecast the ridge to shift eastward into the Atlantic during the next 24-48 h, with a weakness developing near the southeastern coast of the United States and the east coast of the Florida peninsula. The track guidance indicates that the disturbance will move generally northwestward for 48 h or so, followed by a turn to the north and eventually to the northeast as the system moves through the weakness in the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance, with the GFS model taking a weaker system into the Florida peninsula while the UKMET and ECMWF models show a stronger cyclone farther offshore. Overall, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the previous advisory, especially after 72 h. The new forecast track is thus also nudged a little to the east and now calls for the system to spend less time over the Florida peninsula than previously forecast. The new forecast track is to the left of the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models, and additional adjustments may be necessary once the circulation center becomes better defined. The disturbance is currently in an environment of moderate southwesterly shear and upper-level divergence caused by the upper-level low and a shortwave trough extending from the low eastward to the southeastern Bahamas. The shear should gradually diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone and intensify. The large-scale models forecast the shear to increase after 72 h as a mid-latitude westerly trough moves through the southeastern United States and approaches the system. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 72 h, then it is stronger than the previous forecast due to the forecast track keeping the system more over water. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall is possible from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine across portions of eastern Florida into this weekend, which could produce flash flooding. There is greater uncertainty than usual in heavy rainfall prospects farther north across the Carolinas. 4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 24.6N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1800Z 25.1N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 14/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 27.0N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 28.2N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 30.3N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 31.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 32.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-13 10:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 130857 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 11(24) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 10(25) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 7(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 6(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 4(23) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 9(25) 3(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 2(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 21(31) 10(41) 3(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25) 3(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) 2(21) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 6(29) 1(30) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 5(21) 1(22) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 4(26) 1(27) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) 10(39) 4(43) 1(44) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 2(28) 1(29) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 14(32) 7(39) 2(41) 1(42) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 9(27) 4(31) 2(33) 1(34) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 2(22) 1(23) 1(24) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 1(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 14(14) 24(38) 5(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 12(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Nine was located near 24.6, -75.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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