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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 19:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Nine was located near 25.4, -74.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 4A
2019-09-13 19:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131742 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 74.2W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 74.2 West. The system has been meandering during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north-northwest later today. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight, and along or near the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reconnaissance plane indicate that the disturbance is becoming better organized, and is anticipated that a tropical depression or a tropical storm will likely form later today or tonight. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-13 16:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 14:56:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 15:24:37 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-13 16:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 131455 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Preliminary data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet and continues to be characterized by an elongated SW to NE trough of low pressure. Satellite images however, suggest that the system could be consolidating a little bit farther to the east within the area of deep convection. The reconnaissance plane will also check this region soon. In this advisory, the initial position is a point near the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt. The disturbance is embedded within a moderate shear environment, but this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system to become a tropical cyclone later today or Saturday. Global models develop the system and guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach hurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period. By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic well southeast of the coast of the Carolinas. Due to a lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is highly uncertain. It appears that there has been little motion during the past few hours. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to develop and this pattern should steer the system slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The guidance has shifted a little to east this morning and consequently the NHC track forecast was adjusted in that direction. However, the official forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope. If the disturbance develops a little more to the east, the track forecast will probably adjusted to the right later today. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Depending on the track of the system, heavy rainfall could reach eastern North Carolina next week. 4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 25.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/0000Z 25.8N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/1200Z 26.6N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 28.0N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 29.2N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 31.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 32.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-13 16:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 131455 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 4(22) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 2(31) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 9(29) 1(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 1(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 3(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 27(48) 4(52) X(52) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 2(23) X(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 1(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 18(33) 11(44) 1(45) X(45) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 10(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) 1(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 16(17) 14(31) 4(35) 4(39) 2(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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