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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-12 22:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 20:47:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 20:47:13 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-12 22:46:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 494 WTNT44 KNHC 122046 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after consultation with the meteorological service of that country. The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast. With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly uncertain, more than usual I would say. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. 2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-12 22:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 122045 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 2(18) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) 1(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 4(34) 1(35) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) 2(27) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 3(25) 1(26) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 22(29) 2(31) X(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) 1(29) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 2(30) 1(31) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 14(41) 2(43) 1(44) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 14(30) 2(32) X(32) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 7(39) 3(42) X(42) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 15(15) 14(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 11(23) 4(27) 2(29) X(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) 1(15) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) 1(20) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 5(28) 1(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 1(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 1(16) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 8(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) 1(22) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-12 22:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine was located near 23.7, -74.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-12 22:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The system is expected to move toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across the northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central Bahamas. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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