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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-13 04:59:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 02:59:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 02:59:44 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-13 04:57:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130257 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier this afternoon found a closed but very broad cyclonic circulation along with 1000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds that supported an intensity of 25 kt. Recent ship reports also support an intensity of 25 kt, although stronger winds could be present in some of the fragmented convective bands located in the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is an uncertain 310/02 kt. The disturbance has been meandering over the southeastern Bahamas the past several hours due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds associated with an east-west oriented shortwave trough impinging on the west side of the circulation. A large upper-low located over the central Gulf of Mexico that has produced this shortwave trough is expected to spin out another trough on Friday that will move across South Florida and the Straits, impinging on the disturbance and hindering any significant northwestward motion. By late Friday and Saturday, however, the upper-level is expected to have moved into the western Gulf of Mexico, ending any negative effects in the disturbance. This expected to result in the formation of a tropical cyclone with a deeper vortex column that should get steered basically northwestward in combined deep-layer southeasterly flow between the upper-low to the west and a ridge to the northeast. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an extension of the previous forecast track, albeit a little slower, and lies down the middle of the widely divergent guidance envelope, close to the various simple consensus models, and to the right of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model. The aforementioned complex steering flow pattern will also play a major role in the intensification process. The two shortwaves troughs are expected to hinder significant convective organization for the next 24-30 hours due to their localized increase in the vertical shear and intrusions of dry air. By 36 hours and beyond, however, those negative factors are forecast to abate, resulting in the disturbance moving underneath an axis of strong upper-level difluence and speed divergence near or just to the east of the Florida east coast. This more favorable upper-level outflow regime should allow for convection to develop and organize fairly quickly around the center before the system reaches the Florida east coast, which should result in the formation of a moderate tropical storm. Although the center is forecast to be inland at 72-96 hours, the center is expected be close enough to the coast to keep tropical-storm-force ongoing over the coastal waters through 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas within 36 hours. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. 2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 23.8N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1200Z 24.6N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 14/0000Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 14/1200Z 26.5N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 29.8N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0000Z 30.8N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine was located near 23.8, -74.5 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130256 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.6N 75.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.5N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.8N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 74.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 130256 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 1(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 2(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 2(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 4(32) 1(33) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 5(26) 2(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 2(27) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 3(29) 2(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 4(26) 2(28) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 3(29) 1(30) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 12(37) 3(40) 1(41) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) 2(29) 1(30) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 8(37) 3(40) X(40) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 14(14) 13(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 4(26) 2(28) 1(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 7(29) 1(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 10(43) 2(45) 1(46) 1(47) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 9(10) 9(19) 2(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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