je.st
news
Tag: potential
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Graphics
2019-09-28 19:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 17:31:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:31:53 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-28 19:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.9, -100.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
potential
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2019-09-28 19:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281731 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system has moved very little during the past few hours, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) later today or tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, a tropical depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
potential
advisory
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Graphics
2019-09-28 16:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 14:52:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:31:53 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-28 16:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281451 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. There is no evidence of a well-defined center at this time, but satellite animation suggests that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco. Since there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the coast of Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of southwestern coast, and advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E. Earlier ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance has been producing winds of about 30 kt, mostly within its southern portion. The large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, but it is good enough for the disturbance to reach tropical storm status. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and the system should weaken. The initial motion is obviously highly uncertain since there is not a good center to track. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. Regardless of how strong the system becomes, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.9N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
potential
tropical
Sites : [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] [142] [143] [144] next »