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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-13 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130857 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 75.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 75.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 76.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 79.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.2N 80.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.3N 81.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 32.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-13 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 75.2W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler-Volusia County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-13 07:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 05:35:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 03:24:34 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 07:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Nine was located near 24.1, -74.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 2A
2019-09-13 07:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130535 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 74.9W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 74.9 West. The disturbance is moving northwestward at about 3 mph (5 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern Georgia...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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