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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

2020-11-09 09:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 090838 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 9(19) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 9(20) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 9(24) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 7(18) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 8(25) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 8(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 11 X(11) 1(12) 1(13) 8(21) 5(26) 5(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 11 X(11) 1(12) 1(13) 8(21) 5(26) 6(32) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 84 X(84) 1(85) 1(86) 3(89) 1(90) 1(91) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 22 2(24) 3(27) 5(32) 16(48) 7(55) 5(60) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) 4(12) 18(30) 9(39) 8(47) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 8(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 7(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 9(28) 7(35) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 5(13) 19(32) 9(41) 5(46) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 3(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 5(26) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 4(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 17(19) 16(35) 5(40) 3(43) X(43) 1(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 14 15(29) 13(42) 5(47) 3(50) 1(51) X(51) HAVANA 50 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 36

2020-11-09 09:38:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090838 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 82.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay have been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for south Florida has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west- southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually pull away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge including Florida Keys... 2-3 ft Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach... 1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 36

2020-11-09 09:38:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090838 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......270NE 100SE 30SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 35A

2020-11-09 06:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090554 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA IS VERY NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 81.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF MARATHON FLORIDA ABOUT 40 MI...80 KM NE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.3 West. Eta is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west to west- southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida during the next few hours, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. An observation in Everglades National Park recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning: Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm). The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida Keys this morning with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the Florida Keys during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida later today. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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