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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2020-11-09 03:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 090254 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 12(24) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 13(27) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 12(29) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 12(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 8(12) 10(22) 11(33) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 11(31) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 22 2(24) 1(25) X(25) 7(32) 5(37) 6(43) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 22 2(24) 1(25) X(25) 7(32) 5(37) 6(43) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 57 X(57) 1(58) X(58) 4(62) 2(64) 2(66) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) MARATHON FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) KEY WEST FL 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 97 X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NAPLES FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) FT MYERS FL 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 64 2(66) 1(67) 2(69) 7(76) 2(78) 2(80) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 2(14) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 31 2(33) 2(35) 3(38) 14(52) 7(59) 6(65) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 4(14) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 8 2(10) 1(11) 2(13) 15(28) 12(40) 7(47) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 8(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 13(16) 10(26) 5(31) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) 17(28) 11(39) 5(44) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 5(23) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 3(21) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 7( 8) 23(31) 18(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 11 13(24) 9(33) 10(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) HAVANA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 2( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 35
2020-11-09 03:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta since this afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring of low-topped convection around the center, with some deep convection returning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Doppler radar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAA reconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 kt initial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of around 993 mb. Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slot that has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-term strengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys, there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kt tropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta is forecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast to decrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Eta is forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradual weakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models during the first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model thereafter. Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. The models that maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-09 03:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 10:00 PM EST Sun Nov 8 the center of Eta was located near 24.6, -80.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 35
2020-11-09 03:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 073 WTNT34 KNHC 090254 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...ETA BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 80.5W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Eta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected overnight, followed by a west- southwestward motion on Monday and Monday night with some reduction in forward speed. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light in the Florida Keys recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (114 km/h). An elevated station a Port Everglades recently reported a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h). Farther north a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was reported at the Lake Worth Pier. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning: Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm). The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday across south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Beven/Papin
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 35
2020-11-09 03:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 80.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......270NE 100SE 30SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 80.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 80.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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