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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 37
2020-11-09 15:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091445 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 40SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 82.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 85.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.6N 85.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.4N 84.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-09 12:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 11:48:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 09:24:58 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-09 12:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 7:00 AM EST Mon Nov 9 the center of Eta was located near 25.0, -82.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 36A
2020-11-09 12:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091148 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 82.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF DRY TORTUGAS FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 82.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion will continue this morning, followed by a west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed this afternoon and tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually move away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently reported in Homestead, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the aircraft is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 36
2020-11-09 10:03:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090902 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 36...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 Corrected a typo in the second paragraph Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around 11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it has moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of extreme southwestern Florida. The storm has generally changed little in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near 55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data. Bands of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portions of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida. Eta is now moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The upper-level trough that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward to west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through tonight. The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48 hour time period. After that time, the models diverge significantly with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta, which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in those models. The new track forecast shows a slower northward to northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as a compromise of the latest models and continuity. Due to the poor model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions. The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains in light-to-moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will be a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow decay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will be located later in the week. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today. 3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 25.2N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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