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Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-11-08 09:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 08 Nov 2020 08:55:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-08 09:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Nov 2020 08:51:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Nov 2020 09:24:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 32
2020-11-08 09:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080849 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Although Eta has a ragged and asymmetric appearance in satellite and radar images, the cloud tops are quite cold with a lot of embedded lightning strikes being detected in the northeastern quadrant. The center is estimated to be very near the south coast of central Cuba, with much of the thunderstorms over the island. Since the storm has not changed much since last evening, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta again later this morning once it emerges off the north coast of Cuba. Eta continues to move northeastward, but at a slightly slower pace of 10 kt. The cyclone is now located just to the east or southeast of a mid- to upper-level low. This feature and a broader trough over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn northward later this morning and then northwestward this afternoon and evening. This track should take the core of Eta across central Cuba during the next couple of hours and then into the Straits of Florida. Eta is forecast to pass over the Florida Keys tonight. After that time, a slow westward motion is expected as the cyclone merges with the trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, the steering currents weaken and Eta will likely be drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south, or left, of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. The tropical storm is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear and water vapor satellite images show a swath of dry air entraining into the western side of the circulation. These factors along with the interaction with the landmass of Cuba later this morning should cause Eta to hold steady in strength or weaken a little in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen when the storm moves over the Straits of Florida, and that could allow Eta to become more symmetric and strengthen, and it could become a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys tonight. After the cyclone passes the Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there are mixed signals in the models. Although the shear is expected to be moderate while Eta passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current, there will likely be drier air surrounding the storm. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta holding relatively steady in strength for much of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin this afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-08 09:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA... As of 4:00 AM EST Sun Nov 8 the center of Eta was located near 21.5, -79.3 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 32
2020-11-08 09:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 525 WTNT34 KNHC 080847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...ETA MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 79.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood including Florida Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 79.3 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across central Cuba during the next few hours and then move into the Florida Straits later this morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next few hours as Eta moves across Cuba, but the storm is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near or over the Florida Keys. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm). The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in Florida by early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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