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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 14
2019-11-22 21:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 222031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 53.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 53.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N 51.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.9N 49.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.0N 45.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 33.1N 41.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-11-22 15:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 221456 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 CORRECTED WIND GUSTS AT INITIAL TIME THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 55.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 55.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 53.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.0N 51.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.3N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-22 15:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 14:50:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 15:24:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-11-22 15:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 Sebastien is strongly sheared with deep convection limited to the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. The intensity has been set at 45 kt, based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification and recent ADT fixes. A partial ASCAT overpass at 1239 UTC may not have captured the strongest winds, but showed a peak value of only 40 kt. Recent visible imagery and the ASCAT data also indicate that Sebastien's circulation is not quite as well defined as it was yesterday, perhaps due to its close proximity to a nearby frontal boundary. A significant change was made to the intensity forecast earlier this morning, and the latest forecast is in line with that new thinking. Strong shear is expected to prevent Sebastien from getting better organized, so gradual weakening is anticipated. The HWRF is once again a notable outlier, as the 06Z run stubbornly forecasts Sebastien to become a hurricane. While not impossible, that scenario appears unlikely and has been discounted. Aside from the HWRF, the dynamical guidance otherwise dissipates Sebastien within about 3 days, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Given Sebastien's shallow and disorganized structure, it is certainly possible that its wind field may become poorly-defined and the system could dissipate sooner than currently forecast. The tropical storm continues to move at a slower pace and to the right of previous forecasts. The initial motion estimate is 075/13 kt. The latest NHC track forecast is slower and to the right of the previous advisory, closer to the global model consensus. The cyclone is expected to continue generally northeastward or east-northeastward near the southern end of an eastward-moving frontal boundary through the weekend or as long as it remains a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 25.2N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 25.8N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 27.0N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 28.2N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 29.3N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-22 15:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED SEBASTIEN HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Nov 22 the center of Sebastien was located near 25.2, -55.3 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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