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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-22 21:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 20:33:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 21:24:12 GMT
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sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-11-22 21:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 222032 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 Sebastien's structure has not changed since this morning. ASCAT data that arrived just after the issuance of the previous advisory showed that the system was producing winds slightly above 45 kt, a little higher than the previous estimate. Since the structure of the tropical storm has not changed since the time of the ASCAT, the intensity has been set at 50 kt. It should be noted that this is merely an adjustment of the intensity assessment and is not an indication of strengthening. The agreement between the intensity models is remarkably poor. In just the first 24 h of the forecast, the solutions range from dissipation (HMON), to hurricane-strength (HWRF), to steady-state (most of the global models). Since the shear is high and SSTs ahead of the cyclone will be fairly cold, the solution that makes the most sense to me is that of the global and statistical-dynamical models, which generally show slow weakening during the next couple of days. Dissipation is still expected within 72 h. The Jekyll and Hyde behavior of the models isn't limited to the intensity forecast. While it seems clear that Sebastien will move east-northeastward or northeastward along the southern end of a frontal boundary during the next couple of days, the speed at which it will move is very unclear. The deeper the cyclone remains, the more influence strong upper-level southwesterly winds will have on its track, and the faster it will likely move. The latest track guidance unanimously shows a dramatically faster forward motion of Sebastien. In fact, the consensus now shows a forward speed nearly twice as fast as the previous NHC advisory. The official forecast continues to chase the models but has not been moved nearly as far as HCCA or TVCN. Confidence in the track forecast is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 26.2N 53.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 28.9N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 31.0N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 33.1N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-22 21:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MORE OF THE SAME FROM SEBASTIEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Nov 22 the center of Sebastien was located near 26.2, -53.7 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 14
2019-11-22 21:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 222032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 ...MORE OF THE SAME FROM SEBASTIEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 53.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 53.7 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated and Sebastien is forecast to dissipate by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-11-22 21:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 222032 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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