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Tag: irma

Hurricane Irma Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-09-09 17:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 15:43:04 GMT

Tags: graphics storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Irma Graphics

2017-09-09 17:04:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 15:04:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 15:25:06 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane irma hurricane graphics

Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 42

2017-09-09 16:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 091458 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 The interaction of Irma's circulation with Cuba has resulted in some weakening of the hurricane. Data from an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum winds are now 110 kt. However, once the circulation moves away from Cuba, restrengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane for the next 2 days while moving very near the Florida peninsula. The eye has been moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 8 kt. The hurricane is about the reach the southwestern portion of the subtropical high, and the expected turn to the northwest and north-northwest should begin soon. The track guidance is tightly packed and takes the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and given the good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is high. Irma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly updates will begin at 1600 UTC. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight. 2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, bringing life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. 3. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.8N 79.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.4N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 26.4N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 29.0N 82.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 34.5N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1200Z 37.0N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-09-09 16:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 14:58:23 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

2017-09-09 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 091457 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) X(40) X(40) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) X(46) X(46) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) X(43) X(43) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 29(54) X(54) X(54) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 56(62) 19(81) X(81) X(81) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) X(35) X(35) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 33(87) X(87) X(87) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 37(49) X(49) X(49) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 61(68) 14(82) X(82) X(82) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 16(37) X(37) X(37) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 64(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 20(47) X(47) X(47) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 74(91) 7(98) X(98) X(98) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 63(64) 18(82) X(82) X(82) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 59(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) THE VILLAGES 34 X 4( 4) 33(37) 60(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 74(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 50(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) ORLANDO FL 34 1 6( 7) 48(55) 39(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 58(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 6( 8) 45(53) 31(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PATRICK AFB 34 2 6( 8) 45(53) 31(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 12(16) 52(68) 13(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 8 34(42) 37(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) W PALM BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 28 39(67) 20(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 8( 9) 19(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 49 33(82) 12(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MIAMI FL 50 2 19(21) 23(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MIAMI FL 64 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 68 22(90) 6(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 4 35(39) 16(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARATHON FL 34 91 9(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 37 59(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MARATHON FL 64 5 71(76) 6(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) KEY WEST FL 34 89 11(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 17 79(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) KEY WEST FL 64 3 80(83) 6(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NAPLES FL 34 19 61(80) 19(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 1 21(22) 71(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) NAPLES FL 64 X 3( 3) 75(78) 5(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) FT MYERS FL 34 6 52(58) 40(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 X 7( 7) 78(85) 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 62(62) 15(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) VENICE FL 34 4 26(30) 60(90) 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) VENICE FL 50 X 2( 2) 55(57) 25(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 35(35) 35(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 34 2 7( 9) 57(66) 32(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 22(22) 64(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 62(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 68(93) 3(96) X(96) 1(97) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 69(71) 9(80) X(80) 1(81) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 50(50) 13(63) X(63) X(63) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 29(80) X(80) X(80) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) X(28) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 54(60) 21(81) X(81) X(81) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 31(52) X(52) X(52) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) X(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 13(59) X(59) X(59) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25) X(25) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 40(49) 6(55) X(55) 1(56) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 17(45) X(45) X(45) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 1(14) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 49(58) X(58) X(58) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) X(32) X(32) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 10(15) 18(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 7 5(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 72 14(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) HAVANA 50 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HAVANA 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CIENFUEGOS 50 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

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