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Tag: irma

Hurricane Irma Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-09-09 05:52:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 03:52:10 GMT

Tags: graphics storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Irma Graphics

2017-09-09 05:32:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 03:32:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 03:32:04 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane irma hurricane graphics

Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-09-09 05:00:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 03:00:57 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 40

2017-09-09 05:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090259 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight has found that Irma has re-intensified to category 5 strength. The plane measured a maximum flight-level wind of 154 kt and SFMR winds of 140-145 kt in the northwestern eyewall, so the initial intensity is raised to 140 kt. The hurricane is producing very deep convection in all quadrants around the eye, which the Air Force flight measured to be 35 n mi wide. Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt. The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time, Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and then into Georgia. Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore. If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not lose much intensity during the next day or so. As we've stated many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36 hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles. After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is anticipated at that time. Because of the concerns in the track forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the west Florida coast. Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday. 2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center. 3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.1N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 22.6N 79.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 23.3N 80.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.5N 81.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0000Z 31.6N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0000Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40

2017-09-09 04:59:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 090258 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) 1(24) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 6(33) X(33) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 1(46) X(46) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 64(72) 1(73) X(73) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 69(73) 1(74) X(74) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 64(74) X(74) X(74) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 68(78) 1(79) X(79) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 71(92) X(92) X(92) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 61(64) 1(65) X(65) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 50(85) X(85) X(85) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 43(49) X(49) X(49) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 50(95) X(95) X(95) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 63(73) 1(74) X(74) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) X(45) X(45) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 55(63) 32(95) X(95) X(95) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 48(67) X(67) X(67) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) X(40) X(40) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 52(62) 24(86) X(86) X(86) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 29(46) X(46) X(46) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 52(62) 25(87) X(87) X(87) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 29(47) X(47) X(47) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 52(74) 11(85) X(85) X(85) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 14(44) X(44) X(44) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) X(19) W PALM BEACH 34 3 7(10) 36(46) 35(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 20(24) 45(69) 19(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 28(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 34 4 34(38) 41(79) 13(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) MIAMI FL 50 X 3( 3) 27(30) 27(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 6 47(53) 36(89) 6(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 6( 6) 43(49) 18(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X 1( 1) 14(15) 18(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) MARATHON FL 34 14 66(80) 19(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 1 30(31) 59(90) 6(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MARATHON FL 64 X 5( 5) 65(70) 12(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) KEY WEST FL 34 5 68(73) 25(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 X 20(20) 63(83) 8(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) KEY WEST FL 64 X 4( 4) 59(63) 13(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) NAPLES FL 34 3 12(15) 57(72) 26(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 62(87) 4(91) X(91) X(91) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 63(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) FT MYERS FL 34 2 5( 7) 46(53) 43(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 10(10) 70(80) 9(89) X(89) X(89) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 56(58) 13(71) X(71) X(71) VENICE FL 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 59(86) 8(94) X(94) X(94) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 53(55) 21(76) X(76) X(76) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 26(59) X(59) X(59) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 57(67) 27(94) X(94) X(94) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 48(76) X(76) X(76) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 45(57) X(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 57(86) X(86) X(86) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 57(61) 1(62) X(62) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 54(58) 1(59) X(59) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 56(61) X(61) X(61) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) X(46) X(46) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 36(44) 1(45) X(45) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 9(37) X(37) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) X(22) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) 1(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 5( 8) 16(24) 20(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 16 6(22) 6(28) 3(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 4 46(50) 19(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) HAVANA 50 X 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HAVANA 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 63 27(90) 2(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CIENFUEGOS 50 5 44(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) CIENFUEGOS 64 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMAGUEY 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) CAMAGUEY 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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