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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2017-09-08 22:59:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 082059 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 5(33) 1(34) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 1(29) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) 1(43) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 3(67) X(67) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) 1(30) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 8(66) 1(67) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) 1(24) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 65(69) 1(70) X(70) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) X(32) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 2(73) 1(74) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 76(84) 1(85) X(85) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 2(52) X(52) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 67(82) X(82) X(82) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) X(47) X(47) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 73(90) X(90) X(90) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 1(63) X(63) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 61(93) X(93) X(93) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 60(64) 1(65) X(65) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 49(85) X(85) X(85) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) X(47) X(47) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 31(37) 48(85) X(85) 1(86) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 44(58) 28(86) X(86) X(86) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) X(45) X(45) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 2 5( 7) 28(35) 43(78) 11(89) X(89) X(89) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 11(14) 44(58) 29(87) 5(92) X(92) X(92) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 11(11) 36(47) 9(56) X(56) X(56) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) MIAMI FL 34 3 20(23) 50(73) 20(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) MIAMI FL 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 40(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 4 30(34) 48(82) 14(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 2( 2) 35(37) 35(72) 5(77) X(77) X(77) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) MARATHON FL 34 4 50(54) 41(95) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 X 6( 6) 72(78) 17(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MARATHON FL 64 X 1( 1) 50(51) 28(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) KEY WEST FL 34 3 35(38) 53(91) 6(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) KEY WEST FL 50 X 3( 3) 59(62) 20(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 35(35) 28(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) NAPLES FL 34 1 6( 7) 44(51) 41(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 56(65) 17(82) X(82) X(82) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 21(64) X(64) X(64) FT MYERS FL 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 51(83) 13(96) X(96) X(96) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 30(78) X(78) X(78) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 34(60) X(60) X(60) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 47(60) 26(86) X(86) X(86) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 40(62) X(62) X(62) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) X(46) X(46) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 51(86) X(86) X(86) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 56(62) X(62) X(62) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 64(75) X(75) X(75) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 1(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 4(48) X(48) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 2(50) X(50) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 1(38) X(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 5( 8) 13(21) 24(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 20 10(30) 6(36) 5(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 83 2(85) 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ANDROS 50 11 4(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ANDROS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 2 18(20) 33(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) HAVANA 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CIENFUEGOS 34 15 63(78) 7(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) CIENFUEGOS 50 2 26(28) 10(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 92 1(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CAMAGUEY 50 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CAMAGUEY 64 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-08 22:59:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 20:59:49 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-08 22:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 the center of Irma was located near 22.1, -76.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 925 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 39
2017-09-08 22:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 082055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 76.5W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island. The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice * Florida Keys A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line * North of Venice to Anclote River * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna Maria Island * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line * North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...3 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night: Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos...additional 1 to 3 inches. Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Jamaica...1 to 2 inches. The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North Carolina...4 to 7 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday morning across south Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 39
2017-09-08 22:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 082055 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FOR EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO SEBASTIAN INLET... AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF VENICE TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY... AND FROM PONCE INLET TO THE FLAGLER/ VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO VENICE * FLORIDA KEYS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * NORTH OF VENICE TO ANCLOTE RIVER * TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA BAY * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS... AND VILLA CLARA * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS AND MATANZAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... AND LAS TUNAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA... FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 180SE 60SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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