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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-09-07 11:03:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070903 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours. Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous. The next aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC. The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively. Irma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for about the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong hurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement cycles. The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase starting at about 72 hr. However, due to the uncertainty as to whether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at category 4 strength until landfall in Florida. The 96-120 h points now have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land interaction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the southeastern United States. Since Irma is moving away from Puerto Rico and the radars there, the hourly position estimates are discontinued after this advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Friday. 2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday. 3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the weekend and early next week continues to increase. Hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 20.0N 68.3W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2017-09-07 11:02:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 070902 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KTS...180 MPH...285 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 40(55) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 37(54) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 27(58) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 23(43) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 25(61) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 24(57) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 14(49) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 16(72) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 11(37) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 11(58) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 52(64) 11(75) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 7(40) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 59(74) 8(82) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 8(51) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 5(30) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 59(74) 8(82) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 9(51) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 4(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 52(82) 6(88) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 48(54) 5(59) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 4(38) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 43(48) 41(89) 2(91) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 47(63) 3(66) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 2(43) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 55(62) 29(91) 1(92) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 40(69) 1(70) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 2(48) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 59(67) 25(92) 1(93) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 37(71) 1(72) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 32(49) 1(50) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 62(72) 20(92) X(92) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 33(72) 1(73) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 29(50) 1(51) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 60(68) 16(84) 1(85) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 21(57) X(57) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 19(37) X(37) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 15(67) 1(68) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 16(37) X(37) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 33(74) 2(76) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 1(41) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 1(27) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 40(70) 2(72) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 1(38) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 36(52) 3(55) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 5(51) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 10(38) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 42(51) 31(82) 1(83) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 30(46) 2(48) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 2(30) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 14(14) 37(51) 24(75) 5(80) X(80) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 24(34) 3(37) 1(38) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 51(81) 12(93) 1(94) X(94) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 27(69) X(69) X(69) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 24(41) 1(42) X(42) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 10(10) 77(87) 7(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 47(47) 19(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 15(15) 17(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 23(24) 43(67) 3(70) 2(72) 1(73) X(73) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 5 94(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 1 82(83) 6(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) MAYAGUANA 64 X 43(43) 9(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GRAND TURK 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 55 43(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GRAND TURK 64 9 68(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 6(34) 1(35) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 33(48) 3(51) 1(52) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 40(60) 9(69) 1(70) X(70) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 5( 7) 19(26) 3(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 88 2(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) PUERTO PLATA 50 40 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PUERTO PLATA 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 33
2017-09-07 11:01:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070901 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 68.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas. All warnings are discontinued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required later today for portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 68.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center should pass north of the coast of Hispaniola later today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night. Huricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...An additional 2 to 4 inches. Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southern Haiti...1 to 4 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and they should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 33
2017-09-07 11:01:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 070901 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE * CUBA PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...AND LAS TUNAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AS WELL AS CUBA AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 68.3W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 210SE 120SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 68.3W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 67.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-07 10:00:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...0400 AM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...IRMA PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 04:00 AM AST Wed Sep 7 the center of Irma was located near 19.8, -68.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 921 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 180 mph.
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