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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 34

2017-09-07 16:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 071450 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FLORIDA BAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO VILLA CLARA PROVINCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA BAY * CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE * CUBA PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS... CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS AND VILLA CLARA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AS WELL AS CUBA AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 69.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 210SE 75SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 69.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.9N 74.2W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N 78.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.1N 80.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 35.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Irma Graphics

2017-09-07 13:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 11:46:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 10:27:52 GMT

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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 33A

2017-09-07 13:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071143 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA... ...HEADING FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 69.0W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later this morning for portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 69.0 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move just north of the coast of Hispaniola today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is 921 mb (27.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...4 to 7 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...An additional 2 to 4 inches. Much of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southern Haiti...1 to 4 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and they should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 33

2017-09-07 12:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 071054 CCA TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 33...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Corrected to modify Key Messages to reflect the issuance of a hurricane warning for the northwestern Bahamas. Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours. Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous. The next aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC. The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively. Irma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for about the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong hurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement cycles. The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase starting at about 72 hr. However, due to the uncertainty as to whether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at category 4 strength until landfall in Florida. The 96-120 h points now have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land interaction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the southeastern United States. Since Irma is moving away from Puerto Rico and the radars there, the hourly position estimates are discontinued after this advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today, the Turks and Caicos tonight, and the Bahamas tonight through Saturday. 2. A hurricane watch is in effect much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday. 3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the weekend and early next week continues to increase. Hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 20.0N 68.3W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven/Brennan

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