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Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-08 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 08:49:37 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-09-08 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080846 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. A recent GMI overpass showed an 50 nmi wide outer eyewall, with the inner eyewall weakening. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak 700-mb winds of 147 kt in the outer eyewall near 0500 UTC, and maximum SFMR winds were in the 125-130 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 135 kt. Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida. After landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area. There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement, followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast. If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along the later parts of the track. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14. Irma should maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge. After that time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward. There remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur, with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side. The ECMWF, Florida State Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best agreement with those models. Overall, the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments at 36 and 48 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through Saturday. Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of Hispaniola through today. Hurricane conditions will also spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday. 2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night. Irma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for southern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central Florida. 3. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for southern Florida and the Florida Keys. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of the Storm Surge Warning area for portions of the central Florida coast. 4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.7N 73.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 22.6N 77.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 23.3N 79.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 33.0N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2017-09-08 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 080845 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 1(36) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 36(45) 1(46) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 2(41) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 41(53) 1(54) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 43(75) 1(76) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 1(39) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 52(72) X(72) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 1(31) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 40(78) 1(79) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) 1(42) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 42(80) X(80) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 1(43) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 32(83) X(83) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 34(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 63(67) 20(87) X(87) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 21(53) 1(54) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) X(33) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 65(69) 18(87) 1(88) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 24(57) 1(58) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) X(29) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 72(81) 11(92) X(92) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 15(65) X(65) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37) X(37) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 70(83) 6(89) X(89) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 10(59) X(59) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 8(38) X(38) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 70(83) 6(89) X(89) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 10(59) X(59) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 8(38) X(38) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 62(89) 2(91) X(91) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 57(59) 4(63) X(63) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 5(41) X(41) W PALM BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 40(54) 40(94) X(94) X(94) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 56(67) 1(68) X(68) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 1(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 49(74) 23(97) X(97) X(97) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 45(75) 1(76) X(76) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 42(51) 1(52) X(52) MIAMI FL 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) 48(82) 16(98) X(98) X(98) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 39(83) X(83) X(83) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 42(60) X(60) X(60) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 6( 6) 38(44) 44(88) 11(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 31(87) X(87) X(87) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 36(65) X(65) X(65) MARATHON FL 34 X 6( 6) 45(51) 38(89) 7(96) X(96) X(96) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 10(10) 51(61) 17(78) X(78) X(78) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 21(59) X(59) X(59) KEY WEST FL 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 42(73) 10(83) X(83) X(83) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 16(51) X(51) X(51) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) 1(29) X(29) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 41(51) 37(88) 1(89) X(89) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 47(61) 1(62) X(62) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) X(43) X(43) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 49(86) 1(87) X(87) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 51(58) 1(59) X(59) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 2(41) X(41) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 56(72) 2(74) X(74) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 3(45) X(45) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 61(69) 8(77) X(77) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 8(46) X(46) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 19(69) X(69) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20(38) X(38) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) X(42) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 25(44) X(44) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) 1(31) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 11(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) X(24) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 28(46) 28(74) 1(75) X(75) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) X(31) X(31) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 4 32(36) 18(54) 6(60) 7(67) X(67) X(67) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 21 65(86) 6(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) ANDROS 50 1 29(30) 14(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) ANDROS 64 X 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 92 4(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GREAT EXUMA 50 34 18(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GREAT EXUMA 64 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 64 1(65) 1(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) SAN SALVADOR 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 16(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 12(14) 40(54) 9(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 8 71(79) 3(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) CAMAGUEY 50 2 29(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CAMAGUEY 64 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-08 10:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 the center of Irma was located near 21.7, -73.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 925 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 37
2017-09-08 10:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080845 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 ...IRMA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 73.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet * North of Bonita Beach to Venice A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet * North of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 73.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move westward away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern Bahamas this morning. The core of the hurricane will then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day or two, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Bonita Beach to Venice...3 to 5 ft Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area in Haiti for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading across the southeastern Bahamas and will move into the central Bahamas later this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late today and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night: Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches. Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...additional 1 to 2 inches. Turks and Caicos...additional 3 to 6 inches. Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The upper Florida Keys into southeast Florida...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida northward into coastal Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Lower Florida Keys...3 to 5 inches. Western Florida Peninsula into much of Georgia...South Carolina...and Western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and in some areas mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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