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Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-07 16:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 14:53:26 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-09-07 16:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 071452 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 The eye on satellite continues to be quite distinct, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial intensity is 150 kt. The central pressure remains near 921 mb. The environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the hurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some fluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which are difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma will not remain a powerful hurricane for the next 3 days while approaching Florida. Thereafter, an increase in the wind shear could lead to gradual weakening, but Irma is expected to remain a major hurricane until landfall occurs. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 14 kt. Irma is being steered by the flow around the south side of the subtropical ridge, but in 2 to 3 days, the hurricane will be located on the southwestern edge of the aforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north- northwest should then begin. There has been no change in the guidance which is still quite clustered and brings the core of Irma very near the southeast Florida coast in about 3 days. The NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is very close to the multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The later has been performing very well during Irma. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today. These hazards will spread across the Turks and Caicos tonight and the Bahamas tonight through Saturday. 2. A hurricane watch is in effect for much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday. 3. The threat of dangerous major hurricane impacts in Florida continues to increase. A hurricane watch has been issued for south Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. This watch will likely be expanded northward later today. Residents in these areas should heed any advice given by local officials. 4. A storm surge watch has also been issued for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend through 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the watch area. 5. The chance of direct impacts is increasing in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of the impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.4N 69.7W 150 KT 175 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 21.1N 71.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 74.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 23.1N 78.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 25.5N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 30.1N 80.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 35.0N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2017-09-07 16:51:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 071451 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 KTS...175 MPH...280 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 22(35) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 26(43) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 35(52) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 39(54) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 30(50) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 31(53) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 34(59) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 34(65) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 26(38) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 33(66) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 33(48) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 31(65) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 18(63) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 19(49) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 15(65) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 14(60) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 8(48) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 54(65) 7(72) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 5(36) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 5(55) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 48(69) 3(72) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 3(36) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 49(80) 2(82) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 1(48) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 48(79) 3(82) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 2(48) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) 37(86) 1(87) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 40(55) 1(56) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 1(36) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 60(69) 21(90) X(90) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 31(64) 1(65) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 27(43) 1(44) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 66(81) 11(92) X(92) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 21(69) 1(70) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 19(46) 1(47) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 64(83) 9(92) X(92) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 17(70) 1(71) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 17(47) X(47) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 60(84) 7(91) X(91) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 54(57) 12(69) 1(70) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 12(47) X(47) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 52(74) 4(78) X(78) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 4(49) X(49) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 4(30) X(30) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 42(55) 6(61) X(61) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 4(29) X(29) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 14(66) 1(67) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 20(65) 1(66) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 20(46) X(46) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 27(42) 3(45) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 5(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 53(68) 16(84) X(84) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 19(52) 1(53) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) X(33) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 30(61) 19(80) 3(83) X(83) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 22(36) 2(38) X(38) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) ANDROS 34 X 5( 5) 59(64) 25(89) 5(94) 1(95) X(95) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 42(56) 11(67) X(67) X(67) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 46(48) 46(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 4( 4) 58(62) 3(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 47(50) 17(67) 2(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 75 24(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 4 84(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MAYAGUANA 64 1 41(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 64 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 2(26) X(26) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 18(50) 1(51) X(51) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 5( 5) 40(45) 23(68) 4(72) 1(73) X(73) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 16(18) 10(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) PUERTO PLATA 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) PUERTO PLATA 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-07 16:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7 the center of Irma was located near 20.4, -69.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 921 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 175 mph.
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 34
2017-09-07 16:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 69.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. The government of Cuba has extended the Tropical Storm Warning to Villa Clara province. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 69.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move just north of the coast of Hispaniola today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the central Bahamas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 921 mb (27.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands... additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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