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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33

2016-10-12 10:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 120836 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) BERMUDA 34 2 32(34) 60(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BERMUDA 50 X 3( 3) 66(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 38(38) 5(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-12 10:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE NICOLE WITH 100 MPH WINDS IS HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 12 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.9, -67.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 33

2016-10-12 10:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 120835 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 67.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 210SE 300SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 67.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 66.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.9N 67.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.6N 66.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 39.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 40.0N 50.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 67.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 33

2016-10-12 10:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...HURRICANE NICOLE WITH 100 MPH WINDS IS HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 67.0W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large and distinct eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 67.0 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), but a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. An additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will near Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 36 hours, and Nicole could be near major hurricane strength by later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by later today or tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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