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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-12 07:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Oct 12 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.7, -66.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 32A
2016-10-12 07:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120535 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 200 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...NICOLE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 66.8W ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 66.8 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next several hours, followed by a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed by later today. An additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass near Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nicole could be near major hurricane strength by later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by Wednesday evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-12 05:07:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 02:33:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 03:04:36 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-10-12 04:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120236 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern was quite impressive after the release of the previous advisory, with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of around -70C. However, by 00Z the eye was no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, and the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77 kt. The eye has reappeared recently, but the convective tops are a bit more ragged. The initial intensity is set to 80 kt, between the subjective Dvorak estimates and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT of around 90 kt. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional strengthening in the next 24 hours or so, with the cyclone over 28-29C waters and the shear 15 kt or less. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one during this time and is above the consensus. The SHIPS model shows southwesterly shear increasing to 45-50 kt by 48 hours, which should result in some weakening. Nicole will interact with an upper-level trough in 3-4 days, but global model fields and the FSU phase space diagrams suggest that Nicole won't complete extratropical transition when it is left behind by the progressive trough by day 5. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows Nicole as post-tropical at days 4 and 5, but baroclinic forcing is expected to keep cyclone near hurricane intensity through the end of the forecast period. Nicole has moved little during the past few hours, as the cyclone is caught in a region of weak steering currents. In fact, a slow looping motion has been noted since the previous advisory, and the best estimate of the initial motion is a westward drift at around 2 kt. The synoptic reasoning has not changed, as Nicole is expected to gradually recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies in the next 48 hours and then turn east-northeastward ahead of an upper-level trough moving off the U.S. east coast. By the end of the period, the trough leaves Nicole behind to the south of a ridge centered over the Davis Strait, which should result in a slow southeastward drift at day 5. The NHC track has been shifted a little to the right of the previous one and is a little slower during the first 36-48 hours, bringing Nicole near or over Bermuda. Late in the period, a larger rightward shift was made to the NHC track. The new official forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the latest multi-model consensus aid TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 27.3N 66.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 28.2N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 29.6N 66.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 31.5N 65.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 33.9N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 38.5N 56.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 40.5N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/0000Z 40.0N 51.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-12 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 11 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.3, -66.6 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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