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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 55
2016-10-17 22:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172045 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 42.6W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 50 KT.......140NE 140SE 180SW 120NW. 34 KT.......300NE 300SE 330SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 840SE 960SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 42.6W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 45.4N 40.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 360SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.0N 37.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...400NE 420SE 380SW 390NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 56.5N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...480NE 420SE 420SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 61.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 420SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-17 16:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 14:35:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 14:31:35 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 54
2016-10-17 16:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171433 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Nicole is still maintaining its status as a hurricane. The latest satellite images show a ragged eye feature with broken bands of deep convection around the eye and to the west of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt, therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Nicole will likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday when it moves over SSTs colder than 20 deg C and begins to interact with a frontal zone. Little change in intensity is expected even after post-tropical transition occurs, and Nicole is forecast to become an even larger cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next couple of days. The hurricane is moving slowly northeastward at 8 kt as it remains cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over Atlantic Canada is expected to move eastward, which should cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids. The main hazard associated with Nicole continues to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will continue to affect much of the north Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 41.4N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 43.6N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 48.2N 39.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 53.4N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z 57.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2016-10-17 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 171432 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-17 16:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 17 the center of NICOLE was located near 41.4, -44.6 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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