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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 56
2016-10-18 04:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180258 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 The old adage about tropical cyclones transitioning to extratropical once the latitude is larger than the longitude does not apply to Nicole. The system has been able to maintain a coherent inner core of deep convection, which wraps about two-thirds the way around its center. This is, however, somewhat reduced from earlier today and the Dvorak data-t numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped. A just arriving ASCAT-A scatterometer pass from 0019Z indicates that peak winds are about 60 kt and this may be a bit generous. Thus Nicole has weakened to a tropical storm. Nicole's resilience as a tropical cyclone is likely due to it being embedded within very low vertical shear and in quite cold upper tropospheric temperatures, despite the SSTs dropping to near 20 deg C. However, Nicole should soon transition to an extratropical cyclone, as frontal boundaries develop near the center of the system by tomorrow. Even though it will become extratropical, it is anticipated that Nicole will remain a large and powerful system for the next couple of days before being absorbed by a separate extratropical cyclone in about three days. The intensity forecast is slightly less than that from the previous advisory because of the lowered initial intensity and is based upon a deterministic global model consensus. Nicole is moving toward the northeast at about 22 kt, as it is being advected along in the deep layer southwesterly flow ahead of a shortwave trough over eastern Canada. A 2019Z AMSU pass and the ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that the surface center is somewhat west of where the center appears to be from the infrared imagery. Nicole should accelerate and turn toward the north by tomorrow. This track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory and is based upon a blend of the deterministic and ensemble global models. The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 44.8N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 48.3N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0000Z 54.5N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z 59.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 65.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 56
2016-10-18 04:57:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 180257 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-18 04:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 17 the center of NICOLE was located near 44.8, -41.0 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 56
2016-10-18 04:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180257 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 ...NICOLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.8N 41.0W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 41.0 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and it is expected to turn toward the north at a faster rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Nicole should transition to an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday. Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells associated with Nicole will affect the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores islands for the next few days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa in a day or two. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 56
2016-10-18 04:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180255 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 41.0W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 780SE 900SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 41.0W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 42.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 48.3N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...330NE 360SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. 34 KT...390NE 480SE 480SW 480NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 59.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...180NE 240SE 360SW 360NW. 34 KT...480NE 540SE 540SW 540NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 65.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...180NE 420SE 420SW 0NW. 34 KT...480NE 600SE 600SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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