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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 48
2016-10-16 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 ...NICOLE'S WIND FIELD EXPANDING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 48.3W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 48.3 West. Nicole is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Nicole is expected to maintain hurricane strength through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485 miles (780 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda, the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward, and the coastline of Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole should begin to affect the United States east coast south of the Carolinas, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands during the early part of next week. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 48
2016-10-16 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. 34 KT.......360NE 330SE 300SW 420NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 660SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...330NE 300SE 300SW 390NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.9N 46.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 41.0N 44.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 270SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 330SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.7N 36.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 360SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 63.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-15 23:08:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2016 20:36:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2016 21:05:37 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 47
2016-10-15 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152035 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 Nicole is currently showing a hybrid structure. On the larger scale, the system has the appearance of an extratropical low, with cold air advection occurring over the southern semicircle and a developing frontal cloud band east through south of the center. However, the system has secluded an area of warm air near the center where a tropical cyclone wind and temperature structure exists. The earlier scatterometer overpass showed the radius of maximum winds to be about 75 n mi, and the warm core is strong enough to produce hurricane-strength AMSU intensity estimates. Based on little change in the appearance of the cloud pattern since the last advisory, the intensity is held at 75 kt. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central convection for the next 36-48 hours, indicating that Nicole is likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics. After that time, the cyclone should move over sea surface temperatures of 16 deg C or less that should cause the central convection to dissipate. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become post-tropical by 72 hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours. The latest dynamical model guidance forecasts the cyclone to be absorbed by another extratropical low by 120 hours, and that is now reflected in the intensity forecast. The new forecast is otherwise an update of the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 075/10. A slow easterly motion is expected during the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is in an area of weaker flow in the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should steer Nicole north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed. The new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.4N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 39.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 39.8N 46.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 40.6N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 50.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1800Z 60.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-15 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 15 the center of NICOLE was located near 39.4, -49.4 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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