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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 49
2016-10-16 10:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160832 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 ...HURRICANE NICOLE GENERATING LARGE SWELLS IN THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 47.7W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 47.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Nicole is expected to maintain hurricane strength through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485 miles (780 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda, the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward, and the coastline of Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole should begin to affect the United States east coast south of the Carolinas, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands during the early part of next week. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-16 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Oct 2016 02:36:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Oct 2016 02:34:34 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 48
2016-10-16 04:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160235 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 Nicole appears to be trying to develop some inner-core convection with cloud tops cooling near the center during the past several hours. Although there is cold advection occurring on the back side of the cyclone, recent AMSU data confirm that Nicole has a well-defined warm core. CIMSS intensity estimates from the AMSU data indicated that Nicole was still producing maximum winds between 68-77 kt, and the latest classification from TAFB increased from six hours ago. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt. Global model fields show that Nicole is likely to maintain its warm core for another 48 hours. Even though sea surface temperatures will be decreasing from 24C to 20C during that time, upper-level temperatures will also be cooling, which should keep the environment unstable enough for Nicole to generate convection within its core. Therefore, only slow weakening is anticipated during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities. Nicole is expected to lose its warm core and become extratropical by 72 hours, and it should then be absorbed by another weather system by 120 hours between Iceland and Greenland. Nicole's center has turned eastward and slowed down with an initial motion of 080/9 kt. Nicole is cut off from the faster mid-latitude flow to its north, and it is therefore expected to move only slowly eastward or northeastward during the next 36 hours. After that time, a shortwave trough moving across eastern Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate toward the north-northeast and north between 48-96 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus models and not too different from the previous forecast. Nicole's initial tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded based on a recent ASCAT-B pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 39.4N 48.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 39.9N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 41.0N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 43.8N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 53.7N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0000Z 63.0N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2016-10-16 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 160234 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-16 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE'S WIND FIELD EXPANDING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 15 the center of NICOLE was located near 39.4, -48.3 with movement E at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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