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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 53

2016-10-17 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170832 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 45.2W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT.......360NE 300SE 330SW 330NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 900SE 960SW 720NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 45.2W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...400NE 360SE 330SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 210SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 360SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 56.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 420SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 65.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 420SE 420SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 45.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 52

2016-10-17 04:44:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170244 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 Cloud tops have continued to cool around Nicole's eye, and the eye itself has become a little more distinct during the past several hours. AMSU data from 2029 UTC yielded a CIMSS intensity estimate of 71 kt, and since the convective pattern has improved since the last advisory, it is assumed that the cyclone has not lost any strength. The maximum winds therefore remain 70 kt. Global models fields indicate that Nicole should maintain its deep warm core for at least another 24 hours. By 36 hours, however, the cyclone is likely to become attached to a nearby frontal zone to its west, at which point Nicole would become extratropical. Neither the global models nor the SHIPS and LGEM models show much weakening during the next couple of days, and Nicole is expected to maintain hurricane intensity for the next 48 hours. Some weakening is forecast by day 3 with Nicole moving over very cold water, and then the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low by day 4 while it moves between Iceland and Greenland. No changes were made to the updated NHC intensity forecast compared to the previous advisory. Nicole took a jog toward the north since the last advisory, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 040/8 kt. A shortwave trough moving eastward across Quebec is expected to emerge off the coast of Atlantic Canada late tomorrow, with the preceding flow causing Nicole to accelerate toward the northeast and then north-northeast by 36 hours. A north-northeastward motion should continue up until the time Nicole is absorbed by the larger extratropical low near Greenland. The updated NHC track forecast lies near the TVCN multi-model consensus, and it was nudged a bit west of the previous forecast primarily to account for the recent northward jog. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 40.5N 45.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 41.6N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 44.3N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 48.9N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0000Z 53.6N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 62.2N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics

2016-10-17 04:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 02:43:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 02:42:34 GMT

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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52

2016-10-17 04:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 170242 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-17 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SWELLS GENERATED BY NICOLE EXPECTED TO CREATE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 16 the center of NICOLE was located near 40.5, -45.5 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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