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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 52
2016-10-17 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 ...SWELLS GENERATED BY NICOLE EXPECTED TO CREATE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.5N 45.5W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 45.5 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through late Monday. A north-northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is forecast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nicole is expected to produce hurricane-force winds through Tuesday. However, Nicole should lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday as well. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda, the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands for the next several days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa in a couple of days. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 52
2016-10-17 04:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170241 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 45.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT.......360NE 300SE 330SW 330NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 780SE 960SW 720NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 45.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 45.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 41.6N 44.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 44.3N 41.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 48.9N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...390NE 420SE 360SW 390NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.6N 37.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 270NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 420SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 62.2N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...330NE 360SE 300SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-16 23:08:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Oct 2016 20:46:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Oct 2016 21:05:35 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 51
2016-10-16 22:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 162045 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 Nicole's 70 nmi wide ragged eye remains distinct, surrounded by a nearly closed ring of convection consisting of cloud tops of -45C to -55C. However, the overall cloud pattern is beginning to look more like an extratropical low pressure system than that of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt, which is closer to the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and NHC. Nicole appears to have finally made the much anticipated turn to the northeast, and is now moving 045/08 kt. Nicole currently is trapped between two high-amplitude ridges -- one located offshore of eastern Canada and the other to the west of Europe. The latest 12Z model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this blocking ridge pattern breaking down over the next few days as a strong shortwave trough currently located over northeastern Canada moves quickly eastward. The increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of the trough should begin to accelerate Nicole northeastward tonight and Monday, and then turn the cyclone north-northeastward over the far North Atlantic on Tuesday. The track models are in very good agreement on this developing track scenario, so the new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models and input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) at 48-72h. Although Nicole is currently located over marginal sea surface temperatures of about 24 deg C, it is beneath a region of unusually cold upper-tropospheric temperatures, creating an unstable condition barely sufficient to support convection in the inner-core region of the cyclone. However, the latest SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that SSTs will be cooling to 22C and less by 24 h, after which the atmosphere is forecast to become too stable to produce convection. As a result, Nicole is expected to become an extratropical low by 36 hours. However, the intensity forecast shows only slight weakening during the next 48 h due to the system receiving a shot of baroclinic energy from the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 96 h, if not sooner, Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near the east coast of Greenland. Guidance from the NOAA OPC was used for the forecast wind radii at 48 h and 72 h. The primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas. Recent wave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas exist near the hurricane. In addition, swells from Nicole are spreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC and TAFB indicate that long-period swells will continue to radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 39.7N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 40.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 42.6N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 46.3N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1800Z 51.3N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1800Z 59.6N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2016-10-16 22:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 162044 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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