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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 47
2016-10-15 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 152034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 ...NICOLE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 49.4W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 49.4 West. Nicole is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed tonight and Sunday. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, while gradual weakening is forecast Sunday through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will continue to affect Bermuda and the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole are affecting the coastline of Atlantic Canada and will continue through the remainder of the weekend. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2016-10-15 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 152034 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 47
2016-10-15 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 152033 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 49.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......180NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 360SW 360NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 520SE 600SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 49.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.8N 46.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.6N 45.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. 34 KT...330NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 50.0N 38.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 180SE 180SW 90NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 330SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 60.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-15 17:08:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2016 15:00:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Oct 2016 15:05:34 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 46
2016-10-15 16:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151459 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 Nicole has intensified since the last advisory, likely due to baroclinic influences from a nearby upper-level trough. Just-received ASCAT-B data shows 70-75 kt winds to the southwest of the center, and a drifting buoy south of the center reported a pressure 966.6 mb at 1000 UTC, suggesting a falling central pressure. Based on these data, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. It should be noted that the cloud pattern has some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone due to the cyclone's interaction with the upper-level trough. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central convection for the next 48 hours or so, indicating that Nicole is likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics despite cooler air entraining into the circulation. After that time, the cyclone should move over sea surface temperatures of 16 deg C or less that should cause the central convection to dissipate. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become post-tropical by 72 hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward for the first 12 hours based on the current intensity, and after that it is an update of the previous forecast. Overall, the forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. Nicole appears to be slowing its forward motion, and the motion estimate is now 075/11. A slow easterly motion is expected during the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is an area of weaker flow in the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed. The new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 50.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 39.8N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 41.1N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 47.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1200Z 56.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 64.5N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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