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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-10-26 04:50:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260250 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 1 11(12) 13(25) 4(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) 20N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-10-26 04:49:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260249 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.7W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.7W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 119.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.9N 121.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.2N 122.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.1N 122.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-25 23:06:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Oct 2016 20:38:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Oct 2016 21:03:35 GMT
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-10-25 22:37:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252037 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Seymour has continued to intensify since the last advisory, with the 15 n mi wide eye continuing to become better defined inside the central dense overcast. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus are all 115 kt, so that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions except to the south. Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and over SSTs of around 28C for the next 12-18 hours, and thus some additional strengthening is possible. After 18 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause steady to rapid weakening. The majority of the guidance continues to show Seymour weakening below hurricane strength in less than 72 hours, degenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipating completely by 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and again lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. The initial motion is still 275/12. A mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward to west-northwestward for another 12-24 hours. Subsequently, a deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause a break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and northward into the break. Most of the track guidance suggests the forward motion should slow after 48 hours as Seymour shears apart, and it now suggests that the hurricane should turn more westward before dissipation as it is steered by low-level easterly flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track for the first 72 hours, then it is shifted a little westward at the 96 hour point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.2N 118.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.2N 120.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.9N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-25 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 25 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 15.7, -116.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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