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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 32
2014-08-20 22:49:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 202048 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 Karina's cloud pattern has continued to become a little better organized today with a mid-level eye feature in microwave imagery and increasing convective bands. There are no signs of shear at this time since the outflow is fairly symmetric. Based on satellite estimates of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set at 55 knots. As long as Karina remains over warm waters and in a weak shear environment, there is a possibility of some strengthening, but it is more likely that the storm will fluctuate in intensity during the next 24 hours as suggested by most of the intensity guidance. After that time, gradual weakening should begin as the storm moves over cooler waters. Karina is embedded in very light steering currents, and consequently the storm has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Karina will then begin to drift eastward, followed by a northeastward motion with a small increase in forward speed around the south and east sides of the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell. The guidance has been very persistent with this scenario, and the NHC forecast follows the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 136.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2014-08-20 22:46:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 202046 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-20 22:46:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA BARELY MOVING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 the center of KARINA was located near 15.7, -136.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 32
2014-08-20 22:46:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 202045 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 ...KARINA BARELY MOVING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 136.7W ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1815 MI...2915 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST. KARINA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 32
2014-08-20 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 202045 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 136.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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