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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-16 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160233 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014 The convective pattern of Karina continues to deteriorate, with the coverage of cold cloud tops decreasing during the past few hours. The low-level center is partially exposed on the northeastern edge of the convective canopy due to about 15 kt of easterly shear. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity estimate of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the forecast period. The vertical shear is expected to decrease a little by day 3, but the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler SSTs by then. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period. The initial motion estimate is 280/09, as Karina is being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. This ridge will build westward during the next couple of days, followed by an amplification of a ridge well north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in Karina's track bending a little south of due west during the middle of the forecast period. By day 5, the ridging north of Karina will weaken as a mid/upper-level trough amplifies off the west coast of North America. This should result in a collapse of the steering currents and a slow and perhaps erratic motion by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.8N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.1N 123.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.2N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.1N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.2N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.0N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-16 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2014 02:32:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2014 02:31:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-16 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 15 the center of KARINA was located near 17.8, -122.0 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-15 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA ON A WEAKENING TREND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 15 the center of KARINA was located near 17.6, -121.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-08-15 22:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 121.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 121.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 127.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.1N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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