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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-08-17 10:31:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 127.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 127.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.6N 128.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 130.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 131.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 132.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 133.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.1N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.1N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 127.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-17 04:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2014 02:32:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2014 02:31:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-17 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 16 the center of KARINA was located near 17.8, -126.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-16 23:07:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2014 20:39:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2014 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-16 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162038 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014 The cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate today, with the low-level center now removed from the deep convection due to moderate easterly shear. T-numbers have decreased to T2.0 and T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, and a recent partial ASCAT pass shows maximum winds of 35 knots. On this basis, the intensity has been set at 35 knots. Although Karina has weakened, it most likely will begin to re-strengthen in about 24 hours when the circulation moves over warmer waters and into weaker shear. In fact, the HWRF insists on bringing Karina back to hurricane status in 3 days. The NHC forecast is not that aggressive and brings the winds only to 50 knots in agreement with the intensity consensus. Microwave and conventional fixes indicate that the center has been moving just south of due west or 260 degrees at 10 knots. The ridge to the north of Karina is expected to amplify a little more forcing the cyclone to move on a west-southwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the steering currents are expected to collapse due to the development of several disturbances nearby, and that pattern will keep the cyclone meandering for the remainder of the forecast period. Most of the dynamical track guidance forecast a sharp but slow turn to the right before Karina arrives at 132 degrees longitude. Given the weak steering flow, the NHC forecast shows little movement between 3 and 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 17.7N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.5N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.0N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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