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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)

2014-08-14 10:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 14 the center of KARINA was located near 17.4, -115.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 6

2014-08-14 10:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 ...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 115.2W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-08-14 10:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 Deep convection associated with Karina has been expanding during the last several hours, and microwave images suggest that the storm is maintaining a tight inner core. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 3.0/45 kt at 0600 UTC, but recent ADT values from UW-CIMSS are a little higher. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt based on the latest trends. East-northeasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt is currently affecting Karina, which is restricting the outflow on the east side of the circulation. Although the shear is not expected to change much during the next 24 to 36 hours, it should lessen beyond that time period. The official intensity forecast continues to call for steady strengthening during the next few days while Karina remains over warm water and in a relatively moist air mass. Gradual weakening is predicted in 4 to 5 days when the system moves over more marginal sea surface temperatures. This forecast is similar to the previous one, and remains at the upper end of the model guidance. Karina is moving westward at about 12 kt on the southwest side of a deep layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This ridge is expected to build westward over the Pacific Ocean, which should keep the storm moving westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days. After that time, the track forecast is complicated by the potential interaction with other low pressure areas moving out of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The GFS shows a more northerly track of Karina due its interaction with a disturbance to the west of the storm, while the ECMWF shows a more southerly track due to its interaction with the developing system to the east of Karina. The NHC track forecast is between these scenarios, close to the model consensus, and is just a tad to the north of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.4N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.5N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 18.6N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 18.2N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 6

2014-08-14 10:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 116.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 128.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 131.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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