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Post-Tropical Cyclone NEWTON Public Advisory Number 14
2016-09-08 04:50:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 800 PM MST WED SEP 07 2016
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-07 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEWTON MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AS A REMNANT LOW... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 the center of NEWTON was located near 31.6, -111.2 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 38
2016-09-06 19:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 061753 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Based on satellite imagery and surface observations, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds reaching the coastline appears now to be minimal. This special advisory is being issued to discontinue the remaining coastal tropical storm warnings and to terminate National Hurricane Center advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine. There has again been little change in the structure of Hermine since the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. Buoy data suggests the circulation is still slowly decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 45 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system moving eastward across the New England States. After a brief slowing this morning, the center has moved a little faster and the initial motion is now 265/6. Other than that, the track forecast reasoning is unchanged since the last advisory. A slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely during the next 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. For future information on Hermine, please see products issued by your local NWS Forecast Office. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1800Z 39.4N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-06 19:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 17:53:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 17:51:34 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2016-09-06 19:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 061751 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1800 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WORCESTER MA 34 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BOSTON MA 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 34 5 4( 9) 4(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PROVIDENCE RI 34 7 4(11) 5(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 17 8(25) 8(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 15 6(21) 8(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 9 4(13) 7(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 34 12 7(19) 8(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 7 3(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONTAUK POINT 34 20 6(26) 11(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 32 10(42) 9(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLIP NY 50 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 26 11(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 19 9(28) 8(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 18 9(27) 7(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NEWARK NJ 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 16 10(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NWS EARLE NJ 34 30 13(43) 6(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) NWS EARLE NJ 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 7 3(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PHILADELPHIA 34 14 9(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ATLANTIC CITY 34 31 12(43) 4(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 10 6(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 16 8(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) OCEAN CITY MD 34 12 6(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 6 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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