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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 34
2016-09-05 22:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 052042 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 The satellite presentation of Hermine remains non-tropical, with a rather linear band of deep convection situated north and northwest of the estimated center. There continues to be multiple low-level swirls over the inner part of the circulation. Overall, the appearance of the system is gradually losing organization. The advisory intensity remains at 60 kt based on earlier reconnaissance data and a ship report from this afternoon. The system is forecast to move over SSTs of 23 to 24 deg C on Tuesday and these cooler waters should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and, although this guidance may not be very valid for a post-tropical cyclone, the NHC forecast is also consistent with the trends shown by the global models. Some of these models, such as the ECMWF suggest that the cyclone could dissipate within 72 hours. Earlier aircraft center fixes and a more recent satellite-derived fix result in a motion estimate of 300/6 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Hermine should maintain the west-northwestward motion overnight. After that, the ridge breaks down and the cyclone is expected to become trapped in a region of weak steering currents. This should result in a slow and erratic motion through 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if the cyclone survives, a faster east-northeastward motion could occur due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one but generally to the right of the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 39.3N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 39.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/1800Z 39.9N 71.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/0600Z 40.0N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1800Z 40.3N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/1800Z 42.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2016-09-05 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 052041 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) PORTLAND ME 34 9 6(15) 1(16) 2(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) CONCORD NH 34 11 8(19) 3(22) 1(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 14 8(22) 2(24) 2(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) WORCESTER MA 34 28 12(40) 3(43) 2(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) WORCESTER MA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 24 14(38) 4(42) 2(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 30 9(39) 3(42) 3(45) 4(49) X(49) X(49) BOSTON MA 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 60 6(66) 2(68) 2(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) HYANNIS MA 50 9 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 50 31 3(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 53 10(63) 3(66) 3(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) PROVIDENCE RI 50 8 7(15) 3(18) 1(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 34 18(52) 5(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 2 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) NEW HAVEN CT 34 38 16(54) 5(59) 4(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) NEW HAVEN CT 50 3 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) HARTFORD CT 34 33 14(47) 5(52) 3(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) HARTFORD CT 50 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW LONDON CT 34 54 12(66) 4(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) NEW LONDON CT 50 10 12(22) 2(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW LONDON CT 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALBANY NY 34 9 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 14 13(27) 5(32) 2(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 66 10(76) 2(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) MONTAUK POINT 50 24 14(38) 2(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) MONTAUK POINT 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 41 16(57) 6(63) 4(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) ISLIP NY 50 3 10(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLIP NY 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 26 19(45) 6(51) 4(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 22 17(39) 6(45) 3(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 18 16(34) 6(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NEWARK NJ 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 11 13(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) NWS EARLE NJ 34 20 17(37) 6(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 7 8(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) PHILADELPHIA 34 8 12(20) 3(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ATLANTIC CITY 34 12 13(25) 6(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) BALTIMORE MD 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 5 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 6 9(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 22:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 5 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.3, -69.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 34
2016-09-05 22:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 69.5W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 69.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a slow and erratic motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the New England coast into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of the warning area tonight and Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Hermine will produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across eastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands, through Wednesday. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 34
2016-09-05 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 052040 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR * NEW HAVEN TO SAGAMORE BEACH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 69.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 69.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 39.7N 70.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.9N 71.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.0N 71.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.3N 71.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 42.0N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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