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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 36A
2016-09-06 13:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061144 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 800 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 ...HERMINE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 71.7W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 71.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (10 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today, and Hermine will likely become nearly stationary by tonight. A turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The Montauk Point buoy south of eastern Long Island recently reported a 36-mph (58 km/h) sustained wind and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning area today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet. RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce additional light rainfall amounts not exceeding 1 inch along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coastline from New Jersey to eastern Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will continue to affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England for another couple of days. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-06 11:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 08:55:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 09:04:38 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 36
2016-09-06 10:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060854 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Hermine remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, based on data collected by the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters earlier this morning. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is largely based on guidance from the global models, and shows dissipation by 72 hours. The cyclone is now moving westward, closer to the coastline, at about 7 kt. The system is primarily being steered by a mid- to upper-level low to its south. Hermine is expected to slow down later today, and it will likely stall tonight as it merges with the upper low. By Wednesday, a turn to the north and then northeast is predicted as a shortwave trough approaches the system. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the west this cycle to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane, an ASCAT overpass, and surface observations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.6N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1800Z 39.5N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0600Z 39.6N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/1800Z 39.8N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/0600Z 40.3N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2016-09-06 10:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 060852 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT AUGUSTA ME 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WORCESTER MA 34 9 5(14) 4(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 12 6(18) 4(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BOSTON MA 34 7 4(11) 2(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HYANNIS MA 34 11 5(16) 3(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NANTUCKET MA 34 14 5(19) 4(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PROVIDENCE RI 34 18 5(23) 5(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 35 12(47) 7(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 32 11(43) 7(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NEW HAVEN CT 50 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 18 9(27) 6(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) HARTFORD CT 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 33 8(41) 7(48) 5(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NEW LONDON CT 50 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 12 8(20) 4(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 50 5 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLIP NY 34 55 10(65) 7(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLIP NY 50 6 5(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 43 14(57) 7(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 2 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 32 14(46) 7(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 30 13(43) 7(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NEWARK NJ 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 21 15(36) 7(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) TRENTON NJ 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 41 16(57) 5(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) NWS EARLE NJ 50 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALLENTOWN PA 34 10 7(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) PHILADELPHIA 34 17 13(30) 6(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ATLANTIC CITY 34 33 15(48) 6(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ATLANTIC CITY 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DOVER DE 34 11 9(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 14 12(26) 5(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) OCEAN CITY MD 34 10 8(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 7 5(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-06 10:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.6, -71.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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