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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2016-09-05 10:56:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 050856 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) WORCESTER MA 34 6 9(15) 4(19) 3(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 5 9(14) 3(17) 2(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) BOSTON MA 34 7 8(15) 4(19) 4(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) HYANNIS MA 34 15 14(29) 5(34) 5(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 24 14(38) 5(43) 6(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 11 13(24) 5(29) 4(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 8 12(20) 4(24) 2(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) NEW HAVEN CT 34 8 12(20) 5(25) 2(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) HARTFORD CT 34 7 10(17) 5(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) NEW LONDON CT 34 11 14(25) 5(30) 3(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) MONTAUK POINT 34 15 19(34) 5(39) 3(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 10 14(24) 5(29) 2(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) ISLIP NY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 7 12(19) 4(23) 1(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 6 10(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) NEWARK NJ 34 5 10(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) TRENTON NJ 34 3 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) NWS EARLE NJ 34 6 11(17) 4(21) 1(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ATLANTIC CITY 34 6 9(15) 4(19) X(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 7(11) 3(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 10:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 5 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.7, -68.3 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 32
2016-09-05 10:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050855 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 68.3W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 68.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is drifting toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight. A northeastward motion is expected to begin by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain near hurricane strength through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A ship located about 180 miles north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain mainly offshore through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across far southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through tonight. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 32
2016-09-05 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050854 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR * NEW HAVEN TO SAGAMORE BEACH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 68.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 280SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 68.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.0N 69.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 160SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.0N 70.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.7N 70.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 40.7N 67.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 43.0N 62.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-05 07:53:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 05:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 03:06:34 GMT
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