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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2016-09-04 16:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 041444 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 10(26) 5(31) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 3(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 3(23) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 2(22) PORTLAND ME 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 9(20) 6(26) 1(27) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 8(23) 3(26) 2(28) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) 11(30) 4(34) 1(35) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 1 8( 9) 12(21) 7(28) 11(39) 3(42) 1(43) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 1 7( 8) 10(18) 7(25) 9(34) 3(37) 1(38) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 2 7( 9) 12(21) 10(31) 12(43) 4(47) 1(48) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 5 14(19) 16(35) 12(47) 13(60) 5(65) X(65) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 3(21) X(21) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 8 19(27) 19(46) 11(57) 14(71) 4(75) X(75) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 12(25) 2(27) 1(28) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 11(15) 16(31) 11(42) 11(53) 3(56) 1(57) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 9(12) 13(25) 8(33) 8(41) 1(42) 1(43) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 9(12) 14(26) 9(35) 8(43) 2(45) X(45) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 9(31) 8(39) 2(41) 1(42) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 4 12(16) 16(32) 11(43) 9(52) 3(55) X(55) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) MONTAUK POINT 34 5 15(20) 19(39) 11(50) 9(59) 3(62) X(62) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 4 11(15) 15(30) 9(39) 8(47) 2(49) X(49) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 9(12) 12(24) 8(32) 7(39) 1(40) 1(41) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 7(10) 11(21) 7(28) 6(34) 2(36) X(36) NEWARK NJ 34 2 7( 9) 10(19) 7(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33) TRENTON NJ 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 6(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) NWS EARLE NJ 34 4 7(11) 12(23) 8(31) 6(37) 1(38) X(38) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 6(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) ATLANTIC CITY 34 4 7(11) 11(22) 7(29) 5(34) X(34) 1(35) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 4( 8) 9(17) 6(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 5( 9) 8(17) 5(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-04 16:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 4 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.2, -69.6 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 29
2016-09-04 16:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041443 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 69.6W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Cape Charles Light has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Charles Light to west of Watch Hill * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 69.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a slow north-northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to be at or near hurricane strength during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours from Cape Charles, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut, including Long Island. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina sounds and northern Outer Banks...1 to 2 feet Cape Charles to Chincoteague, VA...2 to 4 feet Chincoteague, VA to Atlantic City, NJ...3 to 5 feet Atlantic City to Sandy Hook, NJ...2 to 4 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT including Long Island...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 29
2016-09-04 16:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 041439 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL * DELAWARE BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL TO SAGAMORE BEACH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 69.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......160NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 170SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 280SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 69.6W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.6N 69.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 38.3N 69.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 0SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.7N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.0N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 42.0N 60.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 69.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-04 15:03:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.0, -70.0 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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